Trump's sanctions on Russian crude oil are beginning to impact the global crude market. For example, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices provide a clear illustration. Over the past 12 months, WTI reached $78 per barrel in January 2025, dropped to $57 per barrel in mid-October 2025, and has since risen to $62 per barrel as of today, reflecting an approximate 7% increase.
As Trump pressures countries that purchase Russian crude with threats of additional tariffs for non-compliance, crude oil prices are likely to rise. Currently, the national average gasoline price at the pump is $2.99 per gallon, while heating oil averages approximately $3.71 per gallon, a 2.4% increase from last winter.
Trump warned India, one of Russia's largest crude oil customers, that failure to reduce or cease purchases from Russia would result in additional tariffs. India has agreed to cut its Russian crude imports by 60% by year-end.
Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea at the end of this month. Given that China is the second-largest importer of Russian crude, this topic is likely to arise. Will Trump impose additional tariffs on China if it does not reduce its crude oil purchases from Russia?
In summary, prices for oil-based commodities are poised to rise. Additional tariffs on countries that continue to import Russian crude will likely further increase the cost of imported goods, potentially impacting consumers and global markets.
